历史的弧线:奥巴马外交政策评说(10)

来源:互联网新闻 时间:2020-05-02 09:24

但在其他许多情况下,奥巴马对于他自己的目标并没有清晰而有说服力的判断,有时与他自己政府成员的合作也存在分歧。不仅在中东问题上如此,在阿富汗和巴基斯坦问题上也是一样。在与这两个国家的关系上,奥巴马在最初的政策决定中,投入了远远超出其前任的财力物力来应对挑战。但他对团队内部存在的深刻分歧的包容,毁掉了之前所付出的努力。他任命的顾问包括:特别代表,理查德 霍尔布鲁克;大使,卡尔 艾肯伯里;军事领导人,希拉里 盖茨;国家安全顾问,吉姆 琼斯。各位顾问采用不同的优先级别和各种政治手段来对付重要的他国领导人,比如阿富汗总统哈米德 卡尔扎伊。因此,这些国家的领导人从来无法彻底弄清楚美国是去是留,华盛顿待他们是敌是友,奥巴马政府是希望他们成功还是想迫使他们下台。自然地,这妨碍到阿富汗和巴基斯坦关键人物的防备行为。而对美国来说,来自这个区域的威胁并未像希望的那样得到缓解。

奥巴马花费了许多精力来制定一个强大的对阿富汗战略,以至于一边帮助阿富汗建立国家机构的同时,还要一边平息暴乱。在2013到2014年这段时间,阿富汗军队要为本国安全承担主要责任,奥巴马现在需要一丝不苟地为这段时间制定一个部队缩编计划。一旦2012年9月底美军人数达到6.8万名,对阿战略对于未来的缩编速度意味着什么,关于这个问题还有讨论的空间。但是,在制定该战略时,奥巴马必须传达清晰、有说服力,避免任何意义上的回避,而且要在制定和实施计划的整个过程中保持其团队自始至终团结协作。在这个方面,几乎没有任何讨论的余地。

在阿富汗和其他一些事务的处理上,奥巴马暴露了一个问题:他的冷漠甚至足以让人察觉到。但很不幸的,这种冷漠恰巧是冷静与理性的另外一面。正是这种冷静与理性的帮助,奥巴马才有了在其他方面的出色表现。在个人的层面,一个不受办公室束缚的总统,会让人感觉耳目一新;但在领导者的层面,这种超脱态度可能会被理解为冷漠。当今大量的外交取决于与世界各国领导人的个人关系,在个人层面上,参与时的勉强态度会不可避免地制约总统工作的成效。在应对阿富汗总统卡尔扎伊的时候,奥巴马就已经表现出了这一性格特征,他一直对卡尔扎伊敬而远之;而对以色列总理本杰明 内塔尼亚胡的不屑,既让他失去了以色列人的支持,也失去了狂热支持以色列人的美国人的支持。在阿拉伯国家领导人眼中,这也没有为奥巴马加分。这些阿拉伯国家领导人本身都非常重视他们与美国总统的个人关系,当他们看到奥巴马如何公开羞辱胡斯尼 穆巴拉克的时候,也在担心他们自己是否也可能得到相同的待遇。(高菲 译)

But in many other situations, the president either did not have a clear and compelling sense of his own goals or worked in some ways at cross-purposes with others in his administration. Cases here include not just the Middle East but also Afghanistan and Pakistan. In relations with both countries, Obama made initial policy decisions to devote far more resources than his predecessor to the challenges but allowed deep divisions within his team to undermine the effort. Different advisers—Special Representative Richard Holbrooke, Ambassador Karl Eikenberry, military leaders, Clinton, Gates, National Security Adviser Jim Jones—adopted different substantive priorities and political approaches to dealing with key leaders such as Afghan president Hamid Karzai. As a result, regional leaders could never quite figure out if the United States was staying or going, if Washington saw them as friends or foes, and if the administration wanted them to be successful or to be forced from power. This naturally endangered hedging behavior from key Afghans and Pakistanis, and the threats to American security from that part of the world were not mitigated as much as hoped.

Having invested so much in a robust Afghanistan strategy that sought to weaken the insurgency while building up state institutions, Obama now needs to engineer a carefully designed troop drawdown schedule for the period through 2013 and 2014—when Afghan forces assume primary responsibility for security throughout their country. There is room for debate about what this strategy means for the pace of future drawdowns, once American troops reach 68,000 in number at the end of September 2012. But there is little room for debate that Obama must convey clarity and conviction in setting out the strategy, avoid giving any sense of a rush for the exits, and keep his team unified in making and then implementing the plan.

The Afghanistan issue was one of several that revealed a problem for this president: his perceived aloofness. This is the unfortunate flip side of his calm and cool demeanor that has served him well in other ways. At a human level, there is something refreshing about a president who does not revel in the trappings of office, but at a leadership level, this detachment can come across as coldness. When so much of diplomacy depends on personal relationships with world leaders, a reluctance to engage on a human level inevitably limits the effectiveness of the presidency. Obama has demonstrated this feature of his personality when dealing with President Karzai of Afghanistan, whom he has kept at arm’s length. His disdain for Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has cost him support among both Israelis and their avid supporters in the United States. This gained him no credit with Arab leaders, who themselves place a high premium on their personal relationships with the U.S. president. And when they saw how he publicly humiliated Hosni Mubarak, they wondered whether they, too, would receive the same treatment.

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